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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 6 December 2018

6 Dec 2018

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S&P500

S&P500 was unable to break through its October/November highs. As we type, the index moved again towards the November lows. We are watching closely the VIX index. We see risks of a move closer to 35…As mentioned in previous commentaries, we continue to see risks that the S&P500 could fall below the February 2018 low (2533). Will the S&P 500 be able to hold the uptrend?

Euro Stoxx 50

Euro Stoxx 50 was unable to move above its 50-day moving average. The index is trading below its November low, as we type. The index has already retraced 61.8% of the June 2016 - November 2017 upward move. The next target level would be defined at 2917. We remain cautious, given the current technical backdrop. The downtrend remains intact…

PSI20

The index remains weak. The PSI20 is not far from its 28 March gap (4723 - 4808). The index still seems to be losing some of its  negative momentum. This could allow the index to stabilise in the short-term. We remain cautious in the medium-term. A move closer to “zero” would allow the index to stabilise in the near-term.

Bovespa

The index moved to new highs since our last commentary. The technical backdrop remains favourable. In the near-term, and following the new highs reached by the index, we will look for technical signs that could push the index towards a pullback. A move lower would confirm that the index is losing momentum…

WTI

WTI remains very weak. In the short-term, we see the possibility for WTI to fall below the 29 November low. WTI has already retraced more than 50% of the February 2016 - October 2018 upward move. Given the oversold condition, the decline is still expected to lose momentum, allowing oil to stabilise. RSI still shows an oversold condition…

Gold

The technical backdrop remains favourable. We continue to see as possible a move to $1263 (i.e. 50% retracement of the January-August decline). Gold remains above its 50-day moving average and is moving towards its 200-day moving average ($1256). Gold continued its upward move from the November low. RSI has not reach overbought levels yet…

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has been broadly stable over the most recent weeks. A move to 1.1523$/€ still looks possible in the short-term given current daily momentum indicators. Inability to break the 50-day moving average remains a key concern. We still see the DXY moving higher over the coming months, which is consistent with a cautious opinion for the EUR/USD. Is downside momentum declining? A move towards zero would be a clear positive in the near-term…

Pair-trading with PSI20 companies

Technical conditions remains supportive for the 3 following pairs trades in the PSI20 index: Navigator/Altri, Sonae/Jeónimo Martins, REN/EDP. 

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Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

The analysts involved in the preparation of this report did not receive, receive and will not receive any compensation, direct or indirect, based on the information contained in this report.

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Any opinion contained in this report may be outdated as a result of changes in market conditions, applicable laws and other factors. It should also be considered that the analyst may make changes to the estimates, assumptions and evaluation methodology used.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only, not taking into account the specific investment goals, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive the report. This report therefore has no specific recipient.

Patris is subject to high internal standards of behavior associated with the capital market, prepared on the basis of the applicable legislation of the Portuguese State and the European Union, which include rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest and barriers to the disclosure of information.

Investors should bear in mind that the rate of return on the securities identified in this report - if any reference is made to those returns - may vary and the price of such securities may rise or fall. Investors should thus be aware that they may receive less than initially invested. While this report may refer to the historical performance of securities, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In addition, market conditions, applicable laws and other factors that have an effect on performance are all likely to change, with the consequent change in the information contained in this report. Patris or any other company of the Patris Group does not accept, to the extent permitted by applicable law, any liability, whether direct or indirect, resulting from losses that may arise due to the use of the information contained in this report.

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