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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 6 December 2018

6 Dec 2018



S&P500 was unable to break through its October/November highs. As we type, the index moved again towards the November lows. We are watching closely the VIX index. We see risks of a move closer to 35…As mentioned in previous commentaries, we continue to see risks that the S&P500 could fall below the February 2018 low (2533). Will the S&P 500 be able to hold the uptrend?

Euro Stoxx 50

Euro Stoxx 50 was unable to move above its 50-day moving average. The index is trading below its November low, as we type. The index has already retraced 61.8% of the June 2016 - November 2017 upward move. The next target level would be defined at 2917. We remain cautious, given the current technical backdrop. The downtrend remains intact…


The index remains weak. The PSI20 is not far from its 28 March gap (4723 - 4808). The index still seems to be losing some of its  negative momentum. This could allow the index to stabilise in the short-term. We remain cautious in the medium-term. A move closer to “zero” would allow the index to stabilise in the near-term.


The index moved to new highs since our last commentary. The technical backdrop remains favourable. In the near-term, and following the new highs reached by the index, we will look for technical signs that could push the index towards a pullback. A move lower would confirm that the index is losing momentum…


WTI remains very weak. In the short-term, we see the possibility for WTI to fall below the 29 November low. WTI has already retraced more than 50% of the February 2016 - October 2018 upward move. Given the oversold condition, the decline is still expected to lose momentum, allowing oil to stabilise. RSI still shows an oversold condition…


The technical backdrop remains favourable. We continue to see as possible a move to $1263 (i.e. 50% retracement of the January-August decline). Gold remains above its 50-day moving average and is moving towards its 200-day moving average ($1256). Gold continued its upward move from the November low. RSI has not reach overbought levels yet…


EUR/USD has been broadly stable over the most recent weeks. A move to 1.1523$/€ still looks possible in the short-term given current daily momentum indicators. Inability to break the 50-day moving average remains a key concern. We still see the DXY moving higher over the coming months, which is consistent with a cautious opinion for the EUR/USD. Is downside momentum declining? A move towards zero would be a clear positive in the near-term…

Pair-trading with PSI20 companies

Technical conditions remains supportive for the 3 following pairs trades in the PSI20 index: Navigator/Altri, Sonae/Jeónimo Martins, REN/EDP. 


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