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PATRIS Weekly Technical Outlook - 22 November 2018

22 Nov 2018

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S&P500

The rally from the 31 October opening gap was brief, with the index unable to reach its 200-day moving average. Focus should now be on the 20 November opening gap. A move above this resistance level could be important, at least for the coming weeks. We remain cautious over the medium-term. We continue to see risks that the S&P500 could fall below the February low (2533). MACD shows new signs of deterioration…

Euro Stoxx 50

Euro Stoxx 50 remains weak and went back to its October low last week. We remain cautious. A move to 3068 - 3072 would mean a 61.8% retracement of the June 2016 - November 2017 upward move.

PSI20

The downtrend remains steep… PSI20 reached new lows for the current downward move. A 50% correction of the June 2016 - May 2018 upward move would target 4796. The opening gap of the 28 March session could also be important (4722 - 4809). Focus should be on stabilisation signs as we approach the aforementioned levels. RSI continues to show a downtrend…

Bovespa

Despite rising over the past few days, we still see risks that weak daily technical momentum indicators could push lower the Bovespa in the near-term. Focus should be on 83724. A move below 82000 could be a warning signal for the uptrend seen since the June low. If the MACD doesn’t turn and continues to move towards “zero”, it could be an important headwind to Bovespa in the near-term.

WTI

WTI continued to fall, in spite of the oversold condition showed by daily technical indicators  over the last two weeks. A decline to $50.27 - $51.475 would represent a 50% correction of the February 2016 - October 2018 upward move. Given the oversold condition, the decline is still expected to lose momentum… However, the strong fall since the October high may represent a headwind to the rebound that WTI will be able to show over the coming weeks…

Gold

Gold continued its rebound from its November low. Gold is trading well above its 50-day moving average ($1213). Technical backdrop remains favourable. We continue to see as possible a move to $1263 (i.e. 50% retracement of the January-August decline). MACD was able to stabilise around “zero”, which could be seen as a support for gold prices over the near-term.

EUR/USD

As we type, EUR/USD is only slightly above the level seen when we wrote our comment last week.The technical backdrop is little changed. Daily momentum indicators could still support a move towards the target levels suggested last week: 1.1516$/€ - 1.1534$/€, or even 1.1586$/€.  Medium-term outlook remains cautious, given risks that DXY may still move higher…A move towards “zero” would be a tailwind to EUR/USD.

STOXX Europe Autos & Parts vs. STOXX Europe 600

The relative index went back to 2014-2016 lows. A better evolution from the European auto sector in relative terms is possible over coming weeks. We remain cautious over the medium-term, as the underperformance from the sector is likely to continue. MACD is trying to recover…

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Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

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