* Cotações com atraso superior a 15 minutos via Bats CHI-X Europe e NASDAQ Basic
22 Nov 2018
The rally from the 31 October opening gap was brief, with the index unable to reach its 200-day moving average. Focus should now be on the 20 November opening gap. A move above this resistance level could be important, at least for the coming weeks. We remain cautious over the medium-term. We continue to see risks that the S&P500 could fall below the February low (2533). MACD shows new signs of deterioration…
Euro Stoxx 50
Euro Stoxx 50 remains weak and went back to its October low last week. We remain cautious. A move to 3068 - 3072 would mean a 61.8% retracement of the June 2016 - November 2017 upward move.
The downtrend remains steep… PSI20 reached new lows for the current downward move. A 50% correction of the June 2016 - May 2018 upward move would target 4796. The opening gap of the 28 March session could also be important (4722 - 4809). Focus should be on stabilisation signs as we approach the aforementioned levels. RSI continues to show a downtrend…
Despite rising over the past few days, we still see risks that weak daily technical momentum indicators could push lower the Bovespa in the near-term. Focus should be on 83724. A move below 82000 could be a warning signal for the uptrend seen since the June low. If the MACD doesn’t turn and continues to move towards “zero”, it could be an important headwind to Bovespa in the near-term.
WTI continued to fall, in spite of the oversold condition showed by daily technical indicators over the last two weeks. A decline to $50.27 - $51.475 would represent a 50% correction of the February 2016 - October 2018 upward move. Given the oversold condition, the decline is still expected to lose momentum… However, the strong fall since the October high may represent a headwind to the rebound that WTI will be able to show over the coming weeks…
Gold continued its rebound from its November low. Gold is trading well above its 50-day moving average ($1213). Technical backdrop remains favourable. We continue to see as possible a move to $1263 (i.e. 50% retracement of the January-August decline). MACD was able to stabilise around “zero”, which could be seen as a support for gold prices over the near-term.
As we type, EUR/USD is only slightly above the level seen when we wrote our comment last week.The technical backdrop is little changed. Daily momentum indicators could still support a move towards the target levels suggested last week: 1.1516$/€ - 1.1534$/€, or even 1.1586$/€. Medium-term outlook remains cautious, given risks that DXY may still move higher…A move towards “zero” would be a tailwind to EUR/USD.
STOXX Europe Autos & Parts vs. STOXX Europe 600
The relative index went back to 2014-2016 lows. A better evolution from the European auto sector in relative terms is possible over coming weeks. We remain cautious over the medium-term, as the underperformance from the sector is likely to continue. MACD is trying to recover…
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