banner

Ticker

* Cotações com atraso superior a 15 minutos via Bats CHI-X Europe e NASDAQ Basic

PATRIS Weekly Technical Outlook - 16 November 2018

16 Nov 2018

noticias/analise-tecnica-semanal.jpg

S&P500

The index is trying to stabilise above the important 31 October opening gap. This could support a positive bias in the short-term. Daily technical momentum indicators continue to recover and may allow the index to move closer to the 200-day moving average (2761). We remain cautious over the medium-term. We still see risks that the S&P500 could fall below the February-May lows. RSI still shows an uptrend.

Euro Stoxx 50

Euro Stoxx 50 has not been able to show further attempts to move towards the 50-day moving average (3277). Technical backdrop remains weak. Momentum has weakened again last week. A move towards the October low (3091) is a clear risk. RSI was not able to move closer to its downward trend…

PSI20

Medium-term outlook remains cautious. We still see risks of the index moving lower. The index remains very weak and went back to its October low. Focus in the short-term remains on the ability of the PSI20 to stabilise. We notice that PSI20 has been declining at a slower pace recently. A stabilisation and recovery in the near-term remains possible, in spite of our concerns with the medium-term. A break of the downtrend is needed to support an upward move in the near-term.

Bovespa

The index was broadly flat last week. We continue to see risks that weaker daily technical momentum indicators could push lower the Bovespa in the near-term. Focus should be on 83724. A move below 82000 could be a warning signal for the uptrend seen since the June low. Weaker MACD could be a headwind to Bovespa in the near-term.

WTI

WTI continued to fall despite having already reached oversold levels last week. WTI is down by more than 25%, as we type, since the October high. Daily technical momentum indicators have reached historically low levels (we highlight the RSI in the chart). WTI has now reached December 2017 levels. We would define $59.98 as a target for a rebound in the near-term. We remain cautious for the medium-term. A 50% retracement of the February 2016 - March 2018 increase would target $51.47. 

Gold 

The decline recorded since the beginning of the month has been stronger than expected. Following the recent rebound, gold is again trading above its 50-day moving average ($1211). Technical picture remains favourable. We still see as possible a move to $1263 (i.e. 50% retracement of the January-August decline). A move closer to “zero” would support gold prices over the next few weeks.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has been very close to 1.1187$/€, the level suggested last week, before rebounding over the recent days. EUR/USD may move towards 1.1516$/€ - 1.1534$/€, in the near-term (or even 1.1586$/€). Recent rise in MACD could allow a stronger rebound by the EUR/USD. Medium-term outlook remains cautious, given risks that DXY may still move higher…

iShares MSCI EM vs. SPDR S&P500 ETF

Relative index has stabilised over recent months…Daily momentum indicators have recovered. This could support some outperformance from Emerging Markets relative to the S&P500 in the near-term.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

The analysts involved in the preparation of this report did not receive, receive and will not receive any compensation, direct or indirect, based on the information contained in this report.

PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA or another company of the Patris Group or its respective shareholders, management, and / or employees may carry out personal transactions on the securities referred to in this report, at any time and without prior notice.

Any opinion contained in this report may be outdated as a result of changes in market conditions, applicable laws and other factors. It should also be considered that the analyst may make changes to the estimates, assumptions and evaluation methodology used.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only, not taking into account the specific investment goals, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive the report. This report therefore has no specific recipient.

Patris is subject to high internal standards of behavior associated with the capital market, prepared on the basis of the applicable legislation of the Portuguese State and the European Union, which include rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest and barriers to the disclosure of information.

Investors should bear in mind that the rate of return on the securities identified in this report - if any reference is made to those returns - may vary and the price of such securities may rise or fall. Investors should thus be aware that they may receive less than initially invested. While this report may refer to the historical performance of securities, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In addition, market conditions, applicable laws and other factors that have an effect on performance are all likely to change, with the consequent change in the information contained in this report. Patris or any other company of the Patris Group does not accept, to the extent permitted by applicable law, any liability, whether direct or indirect, resulting from losses that may arise due to the use of the information contained in this report.

Patris's activity is overseen by the Bank of Portugal and the Securities Market Commission. 

Voltar