* Cotações com atraso superior a 15 minutos via Bats CHI-X Europe e NASDAQ Basic
31 Dec 2018
This is an abbreviated version of the PATRIS The Week Ahead report. The publication of the usual format will resume next week.
Key themes for the coming week:
1.The Italian parliament on Saturday passed the government’s 2019 budget (by 327 to 228), ahead of the end-year deadline.
2.The 11-country CPTPP trade deal, a revamped version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, came into force on Sunday. The US pulled out of the TPP negotiations in 2017.
3.President Donald Trump said that a possible trade deal between the US and China was progressing well. Is this one more sign that the president has now clear incentives to find a solution to the trade war with China?
4.In Brazil, the new president Jair Bolsonaro will be sworn in as of 1st January 2019.
5.Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be interviewed by formers Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke at the annual American Economic Association meeting on Friday. We will have other Fed speakers at the AEA conference on Friday and Saturday.
6.The PMI/ISM readings for December, the US jobs report and the Euro Area flash HICP reading for December are the highlights of the data calendar for the coming week.
7.In Mexico, the central bank will publish on Thursday the minutes from the December MPC meeting. At that meeting, the Bank increased the policy rate by 25bps to 8.25%, in an unanimous decision.
8.Update to the Key Risk Events Calendar for the following months.
The 4Q18 earnings season could be main driver of financial markets over the coming weeks. In the US (for the S&P500 index), according to FactSet, the consensus reduced EPS estimates for 4Q18 by 3.4% since the beginning of the last quarter of 2018. This percentage decline is larger than the 5-year percentage (-3.1%) for a quarter, but smaller than the 10-year average (-4.5%) and the 15-year average (-3.9%) for this period. Meanwhile, of the 105 companies that have issued EPS guidance for 4Q18, 72 have issued negative EPS guidance, or 69% of the total, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 70%.
According to FactSet, the estimated earnings y/y growth for 4Q18 is 12.4%, which would represent the 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P500 index. The estimated y/y revenue growth for 4Q18 is 6.3%.
For 1Q19, 2Q19, 3Q19 and 4Q19, analysts are projecting y/y earnings growth of 3.5%, 4.1%, 4.6% and 11.8%, respectively (6.5%, 5.2%, 5.1% and 5.9%, for revenue growth, in the same order).
For FY19, analysts are projecting earnings and revenue growth of 7.9% and 5.3%, respectively (vs. 20.3% and 8.9% estimated for 2018, in the same order).
The PMI/ISM readings for December, the US jobs report and the Euro Area flash HICP reading for December are the highlights of the data calendar for the first week of 2019.
In Portugal, INE is scheduled to release December’s business and consumer surveys on Thursday and December’s CPI/HICP flash estimates on Friday. The Bank of Portugal is expected to release data on bank loans to households and non-financial corporations for November on Thursday. 3Q18 net borrowing/net lending of the general government & public debt (EDP approach) will be released on Wednesday.
As illustrated by the following charts, November’s registered unemployment data remain consistent with a healthy labour market in Portugal.
EGB supply this week is expected to come from Spain on Thursday. There are around €30bn of coupons and redemptions that will more than offset the supply expected for the coming week. Greece (Wednesday) and France (Wednesday) are scheduled to sell Treasury Bills. There will be no supply or cashflows in the US during the week.
On central banks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be interviewed by formers Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke at the annual American Economic Association meeting on Friday. We will also have speeches from Raphael Bostic (Friday and Saturday), John Williams (Saturday) and Mary Daly (Saturday). Powell’s speech, the jobs report and the ISM manufacturing are likely to be key events in assessing the likelihood and timing of further rate hikes in 2019 by the FOMC.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model that uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates points to a higher probability of recession in the US twelve months ahead, reflecting the flattening of the US Treasury curve during 2018.
For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or firstname.lastname@example.org
The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.
The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.
The analysts involved in the preparation of this report did not receive, receive and will not receive any compensation, direct or indirect, based on the information contained in this report.
PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA or another company of the Patris Group or its respective shareholders, management, and / or employees may carry out personal transactions on the securities referred to in this report, at any time and without prior notice.
Any opinion contained in this report may be outdated as a result of changes in market conditions, applicable laws and other factors. It should also be considered that the analyst may make changes to the estimates, assumptions and evaluation methodology used.
This report has been prepared for information purposes only, not taking into account the specific investment goals, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive the report. This report therefore has no specific recipient.
Patris is subject to high internal standards of behavior associated with the capital market, prepared on the basis of the applicable legislation of the Portuguese State and the European Union, which include rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest and barriers to the disclosure of information.
Investors should bear in mind that the rate of return on the securities identified in this report - if any reference is made to those returns - may vary and the price of such securities may rise or fall. Investors should thus be aware that they may receive less than initially invested. While this report may refer to the historical performance of securities, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In addition, market conditions, applicable laws and other factors that have an effect on performance are all likely to change, with the consequent change in the information contained in this report. Patris or any other company of the Patris Group does not accept, to the extent permitted by applicable law, any liability, whether direct or indirect, resulting from losses that may arise due to the use of the information contained in this report.
Patris's activity is overseen by the Bank of Portugal and the Securities Market Commission.
Deseja aceder ao conteúdo
completo desta notícia?