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PATRIS Monthly Newsletter - November 2018

3 Dec 2018

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Overview: 

  • The Portuguese GDP grew 0.3%q/q and 2.1%y/y in 3Q18 (vs 0.6%q/q and 2.4%y/y in 2Q18);
  • Italian bonds rallied sharply over the last few weeks, on reports that the government may adopt a more flexible approach on the 2019 budget. The EU Commission continue to raise concerns that the budget is non-compliant with the EU guidelines;
  • In the US, the FOMC seems to be on course to increase the Fed Fund Rate by a further 25bps at its 18-19 December meeting. Chair Powell's address to the Economic Club of New York increased investors' expectations that the FOMC could pause its rate hiking cycle next year;
  • Credit spreads in Europe continued to increase in November, from the very expensive levels seen at the start of the year. A stabilisation in global growth and expectations of support from the major central banks will probably be needed in order to investors decide to go ahead with long positions on credit.

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For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

The analysts involved in the preparation of this report did not receive, receive and will not receive any compensation, direct or indirect, based on the information contained in this report.

PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA or another company of the Patris Group or its respective shareholders, management, and / or employees may carry out personal transactions on the securities referred to in this report, at any time and without prior notice.

Any opinion contained in this report may be outdated as a result of changes in market conditions, applicable laws and other factors. It should also be considered that the analyst may make changes to the estimates, assumptions and evaluation methodology used.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only, not taking into account the specific investment goals, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive the report. This report therefore has no specific recipient.

Patris is subject to high internal standards of behavior associated with the capital market, prepared on the basis of the applicable legislation of the Portuguese State and the European Union, which include rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest and barriers to the disclosure of information.

Investors should bear in mind that the rate of return on the securities identified in this report - if any reference is made to those returns - may vary and the price of such securities may rise or fall. Investors should thus be aware that they may receive less than initially invested. While this report may refer to the historical performance of securities, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In addition, market conditions, applicable laws and other factors that have an effect on performance are all likely to change, with the consequent change in the information contained in this report. Patris or any other company of the Patris Group does not accept, to the extent permitted by applicable law, any liability, whether direct or indirect, resulting from losses that may arise due to the use of the information contained in this report.

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