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Patris Monthly Newsletter - December 2018

31 Dec 2018



  • In Portugal, the General Government balance was marginally positive in the year ending in 3Q18, comparing with a net borrowing of 1.0% of GDP in the previous quarter;
  • The Bank of Portugal now expects the economy to grow 2.1% in 2018 (vs. 2.3% in October) and to keep growing at an annual rate of 1.8% in 2019 (vs. 1.9% in June);
  • An aging US economic cycle, slower growth in the global economy, higher equity market volatility, trade wars, Brexit and higher European political risk were the main drivers of this year's poor performance in equity markets;
  • As widely expected, the ECB confirmed on 13 December that net asset purchases will cease at the end of 2018. In the US, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by another 25bps on 19 December, as widely anticipated, to 2.25%-2.50%; 
  • Italian budget discipline, BREXIT, slowing economic growth, potential tariffs in Europe, US/China trade war and the end of the CSPP bid remain all key risks for credit markets over the coming weeks. However, December has already showed a strong widening in spreads.


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