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PATRIS Daily - 10 September 2018 - Part 1

10 Sep 2018



Europe: Excluding France (+0.16%) and Germany (+0.04%), the main European stock indices fell on the last session of the week.

Stoxx 600 closed 0.08% higher, with its 11 sectors registering gains. Telecommunications (+1.01%) and Health care (+0.75%) outperformed. Basic Resources (-1.03%) and Banks (-0.93%) were the biggest losers.

With exception of the Italian FTSE MIB index (+0.88%), all the main European indices suffered losses over the week.

Eurozone sovereign debt market: With exception of Italy (-2.4bps to 3.027%) and Greece (-11.7bps to 4.242%), the EGB yields increased across the board, following UST 10-year yields (+6.6bps to 2.939%). The yield on 10-year Bund closed 3.3bps higher at 0.385%.

Speaking at the end of the Eurogroup meeting, Mario Centeno said that the economic outlook for the region continues to be positive. He stressed that Portugal’s public debt must continue to be reduced. Meanwhile, ECB Executive Council member Benoît Coeuré recognised that there are mounting risks surrounding the euro area. ESM’s Klaus Regling said that there are no short- or medium-term concerns about Portugal.

The Portuguese Treasury and Debt Management Agency announced bond auctions on 12 September 2018 (OT 4.95% with maturity on 25 October 2023 and OT 2.125% with maturity on 17 October 2028), with the indicative global range amount for the auctions of €750mn to €1000mn.

Portugal: PSI20 lost 0.55% on Friday. F.Ramada (+2.1%), CTT (+1.0%), EDPR (+0.8%), Altri (+0.3%) and NOS (+0.1%) were the only members closing with gains. BCP (-2.7%) and Mota-Engil (-1.6%) were hit the hardest.

FX & Commodities: The first future of Brent finished the day up by 0.43% (+0.85% as we type). Gold closed 0.25% lower (-0.32% as we type). EUR/USD finished the day with a loss of 0.60% (-0.16% as we type).

Chinese officials and executives of ExxonMobil discussed a $10bn investment by the U.S.-based firm in the southern province of Guangdong, China.

EM Turmoil could be a headwind for oil prices

US Equity & Debt Markets: S&P500 fell by 0.22% on Friday. Health care (+0.15%) closed positive, while the remaining main 10 sectors in the index suffered losses. Real Estate (-1.24%) and Utilities (-1.20%) were hit the hardest. 10-year UST yields rose by 6.7bps to 2.941%.

Volatility on the US Treasuries remains low. Meanwhile, 2-year UST yields achieved the highest level since early 2008 on Friday.

The US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet has decreased by 4.8pp of GDP since October 2014.

Latin America: in Chile, CPI inflation slowed down from +0.4% m/m in July to +0.2% m/m in August, in line with consensus. Excluding food and energy, the prices were flat over the month, vs. the market expectation of an increase of +0.1% m/m. When compared to August 2017, CPI inflation rose +2.6% y/y in August, below the market expectation of +2.7% y/y. The trade balance plunged from a surplus of $375mn in July, to a deficit of $302mn in August. Exports fell 1.0% y/y to $6.2bn, while imports rose 18.2% y/y to $6.5bn over the last month. It’s the first time that Chile posted a trade deficit since August 2016.

In Mexico, CPI inflation printed at +0.58% m/m in August, slightly above the market expectations of +0.52% m/m. Core CPI stood at +0.25% m/m, below July reading of +0.29% m/m and in line with consensus. In annual terms, CPI rose +4.90% y/y, above the market expectations of +4.85% y/y.

In Argentina, central bank president called on central banks in developed world to invest in EM sovereign debt as part of their reserves.

In Colombia, the Finance Minister said that the government seeks ways to fill the 2019 budget gap, with alternatives including lower spending, fight against tax evasion and tax revenue increase. He sees current account deficit below 3.2% in 2018 helped by higher oil prices and increase of FDI and exports. He added that long-term growth rate fell to 3.5%, which is one of Colombia’s biggest problems.

Asia: Asian equities traded with a mixed tone: TOPIX +0.20%, HANG SENG -1.65% as we type, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE -1.21%, HSCEI -0.64% as we type, TAIWAN -1.12%, KOSPI +0.31%, and S&P/ASX200 -0.03%.

In China, the trade balance stood at $27.91bn in August (vs. consensus $31.00bn), reflecting a 9.8%y/y increase in exports (vs. consensus +10.0%y/y), while imports rose by +20.0%y/y (vs. consensus +17.7%y/y). Meanwhile, CPI inflation reached 2.3%y/y in August (vs. consensus +2.1%y/y), after +2.1%y/y the month before. Annual food inflation accelerated to +1.7%y/y, from +0.5%y/y in July. Annual non-food inflation reached +2.5%y/y in August (vs. +2.4%y/y in July). Core CPI inflation reached +2.0%y/y, following +1.9%y/y in July. PPI inflation slowed to 4.1%y/y in August from +4.6%y/y in July (vs. consensus +4.0%y/y).

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